FORMAL EDGE / DECISION MACHINE 06
A predictor filled the box before you arrived.
There is no “correct visitor” here. Pick one box or two and let the apparatus expose why evidence and causal dominance can tell different stories about the same choice.
No quiz. Touch the machine and watch what happens.
PLAY FIRST / THE PREDICTOR HAS ALREADY LEFT
Choose what you would actually pick up.
The opaque box was filled yesterday by a predictor that is right about 90% of the time. The clear box visibly contains $1,000. Pick a gesture and reveal one possible world.
This is not graded. The disagreement is the exhibit: one style of reasoning follows the evidence; another follows direct causal control.
NEWCOMB / CORRELATED WORLDS
Two boxes. One sealed prediction.
OPAQUEfilled yesterday
?
CLEARvisible now
$1,000
Pick a gesture. The predictor's old decision is already sealed.
What you just saw
The idea arrives after the spectacle.
Evidence lensYour choice is powerful evidence about what the highly reliable predictor probably placed yesterday.
Causal lensThe opaque box is already fixed; grabbing the clear $1,000 seems to add money without changing the past.
The pointThe machine makes two plausible theories of rational action visibly pull apart. It is a conflict to explore, not an answer key.
Independent educational interpretation inspired by Agustín Rayo’s work and course materials. Public wording, visuals, and interactions are original to The Mercurial World; no collaboration, review, sponsorship, endorsement, or approval is implied.